As China’s markets reopened post-Lunar New Year, commodities faced a challenging session amid escalating US-China trade tensions. The US Postal Service's suspension of inbound international packages from China and Hong Kong has further dampened market sentiment. This geopolitical strain has led to a rotation out of riskier industrial commodities, such as oil and copper, into safer assets like gold, which is
Crude oil futures are experiencing a rebound as geopolitical tensions rise, with the US preparing to reinforce sanctions on Iran. This move threatens to disrupt Iran's crude exports, adding a layer of uncertainty to the global oil supply. The broader market context includes a rally in stocks, driven by optimism that China may ease its stance on tariffs, which has particularly benefited big tech companies se
The oil market is facing significant pressure as escalating trade tensions between the US and China threaten to dampen global economic growth, potentially reducing energy consumption. The recent decision to delay trade escalation with Mexico and Canada has also impacted the market by temporarily removing a levy on Canadian crude flows, which could lead to an oversupply situation. Additionally, OPEC+ has bee
The oil market is experiencing a softening trend as President Donald Trump announced a delay in tariffs on Mexico and Canada, reducing immediate import costs and uncertainties. This move aligns with Trump's preference for affordable conventional energy, suggesting a strategic approach to managing oil prices through tariff adjustments. Meanwhile, the threat of tariffs on China persists, although negotiations
The commodities market is bracing for potential volatility as the deadline for new tariffs imposed by the US on Canada, Mexico, and China approaches. Investors are on edge, given the possibility of last-minute changes in trade policy, which could significantly impact commodity prices. President Donald Trump has indicated that he will be in discussions with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, leaving roo
The imposition of tariffs by the US on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China has sent ripples through global markets, with investors flocking to the dollar as a safe haven amidst escalating trade tensions. The tariffs are expected to stoke inflationary pressures, supporting higher US interest rates and further bolstering the dollar's appeal. Equity markets across the US, Europe, and Asia-Pacific have tumbl
The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report reveals significant shifts in speculative positioning, with notable selling in crude oil futures. This aggressive selling of 35,000 contracts suggests expectations of decreased future demand or increased supply, which could weigh on energy sector equities. Concurrently, the report highlights the largest weekly sale of VIX futures since late 2023, indicating a po
The oil market is experiencing heightened volatility as traders react to the latest tariff developments under the second Trump administration. The potential inclusion of Canadian oil in new tariff measures is a significant concern, as the U.S. imports an average of 4 million barrels per day from Canada. Any restrictions could tighten supply, impacting the storage hub of Cushing and Midwest refiners, and pot
The Asia-Pacific markets are bracing for a turbulent session as President Trump's announcement of impending 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico adds to the region's economic uncertainty. This move has already exerted pressure on regional currencies, with the Australian dollar, a key risk proxy, experiencing a significant decline. Investors are gravitating towards safer assets, such as the yen, which has streng
The potential exclusion of oil from upcoming US trade tariffs could significantly alter the economic landscape, particularly in the context of US-Canada trade relations. If energy products are exempted, the overall negative impact of tariffs on the US economy might be mitigated, as the US holds a trade surplus with Canada when oil is excluded. This development could also prevent a substantial increase in th
The announcement of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico by President Trump has injected a wave of uncertainty into the markets, particularly affecting sectors reliant on cross-border trade. US automakers are facing potential profitability challenges as the increased trade costs could disrupt supply chains and raise production expenses. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Index has strengthened against the Mexican
Disappointing GDP data from the euro area has sparked a rally in government bonds, with German Bunds leading the charge as traders anticipate potential interest-rate cuts from the European Central Bank. This has resulted in a 6 basis point drop in German 10-year yields to 2.52%. The expectation of lower rates has also buoyed European stocks, which reached new record highs, driven by gains in real estate, ch
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range has kept the yield environment for 10-year Treasuries stable, preserving their appeal compared to equities. This decision comes amid a backdrop of tech earnings volatility, with companies like Tesla and Meta Platforms showing mixed results. The Fed's unchanged stance on rates, despite acknowledging "somewhat elevated" inflatio
Crude oil futures experienced a downturn as the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates unchanged signaled a prolonged period of higher borrowing costs. This move, coupled with Chair Jerome Powell's remarks that the Fed is not in a hurry to lower rates, has heightened concerns about future economic growth and energy demand. The removal of language from the Fed's statement regarding inflation p
European stocks reached new heights, driven by ASML's impressive earnings report, which saw the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker book more than twice the expected orders in the fourth quarter. This surge in ASML shares, up nearly 9%, has positively influenced the Stoxx 600, pushing it to a record high. However, the luxury sector faced headwinds as LVMH shares fell approximately 5% due to a decline in fas
The potential resolution of the Ukraine conflict is casting a shadow over the geopolitical risk premiums that have buoyed oil and gold prices. Recent developments, including the resignation of Serbian Prime Minister Milos Vucevic and signals from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and US President Trump about ending the conflict, suggest a shift in the geopolitical landscape. This shift could diminish
Investor sentiment is buoyed as AI-related fears that triggered Monday's market downturn begin to dissipate, leading to a rebound in Nasdaq futures and a notable premarket surge in Nvidia shares. European equities are also on the rise, with the Stoxx 600 poised for a record close, bolstered by strong earnings reports. Meanwhile, the dollar gains strength amid concerns over potential US trade tariffs, making
The emergence of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has triggered a reevaluation of tech stock valuations, leading to a significant selloff in Nasdaq futures and European tech stocks. This shift in sentiment has prompted investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets, with the Japanese yen and Swiss franc gaining ground. The yen rose 1.3% against the US dollar, while the Swiss franc climbed 0.6%. Meanwhile, US 10-y
The recent shift in global macroeconomic dynamics has seen the dollar weaken against major currencies, following President Trump's softer stance on tariffs with China. This has led to a rally in Asian currencies, with the offshore yuan appreciating by as much as 0.7%. The hawkish policy stance from the Bank of Japan, which included a rate hike and optimistic CPI forecasts, has further strengthened the yen,
Oil prices faced downward pressure following former President Donald Trump's remarks at the Davos forum, where he reiterated his commitment to lowering oil prices. Trump stated his intention to engage Saudi Arabia and OPEC in efforts to increase oil supply, which could lead to a reduction in prices. This announcement comes amid a backdrop of a weakening dollar, which has bolstered foreign currencies like th