The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased by 7.57% to close at 17.21, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose by 0.72% to finish the day at 6037.88 on February 4, 2025. This decline in the VIX suggests a reduction in market volatility and increased investor confidence, projecting about 1.07% in daily S&P 500 movement over the next 30 days. Today's VIX trading volume was 1.250 times the 30-day average, with calls
The equity markets are currently navigating a landscape marked by geopolitical uncertainty, with recent tariff delays on Mexico and Canada providing only temporary relief. Despite a more neutral gamma profile around the 6,000 level for the S&P 500, which suggests reduced dealer hedging needs, implied volatility remains elevated. This is reflected in the VIX, which indicates ongoing investor apprehension ami
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose by 3.72% to close at 16.43, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) declined by 0.5% to finish at 6040.53 on January 31, 2025. This increase in the VIX suggests heightened market volatility and uncertainty, with the market expecting daily movements of approximately 1% in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. The VIX opened at 15.45, higher than the previous close of 15.84, and fluctu
The announcement of new tariffs set to begin on February 1 has cast a shadow over US equity markets, leading to a broad risk-off sentiment among investors. The S&P 500's breadth has worsened, with most sectors, particularly energy, experiencing declines. This shift is attributed to increased uncertainty and potential earnings pressures due to higher costs. As a result, value stocks are underperforming growt
The return of Donald Trump to the White House has reignited concerns over potential tariff impositions, particularly affecting emerging market equities. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is showing signs of recovery, aiming for its first monthly gain since September, as investors weigh the likelihood of substantial tariffs against key trading partners. While President Trump has hinted at imposing 25% levies o
The market is currently showing few signs of acute anxiety, with implied volatility on the decline and the cost of downside protection near yearly lows. This suggests a reduced expectation of near-term volatility, as positive gamma continues to constrain market movements. The tech sector, despite recent declines, has not exhibited significant panic, with only marginal increases in the cost of out-of-the-mon
Concerns over the overvaluation of US stocks are driving market participants to seek protection through put options, as traders brace for potential declines. The open interest in options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, which benefit from a fall in equities, has surged to 2.67 times that of contracts favoring an upside. This elevated put-to-call ratio, now in the 97th percentile, underscores a heightened level of b
The recent turbulence in the AI sector has sparked a significant reassessment of tech stock valuations, leading to a sharp selloff in US markets. Concerns were ignited after DeepSeek, a Chinese startup, launched a cost-effective AI model that quickly topped Apple's app store, raising questions about the sustainability of current AI valuations. This development triggered a 1.5% drop in the S&P 500 and a 3% d
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged by 20.54% to close at 17.90, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) declined by 1.46% to finish at 6012.28 on January 27, 2025. This increase in the VIX suggests heightened market volatility and uncertainty, projecting approximately 1.12% in daily S&P 500 movement over the next 30 days. The day's trading volume data was unavailable, but the most significant trade was the VIX Ma
The recent escalation of tariffs by the United States, particularly targeting Colombia, has heightened fears of retaliatory measures and increased volatility in the financial markets. Emerging market currencies, including the Mexican and Colombian pesos, have depreciated as investors anticipate negative impacts on trade balances and economic growth. The uncertainty surrounding these tariffs has led to a ris
A surge in VIX call buying last week has proven beneficial for traders seeking protection against market volatility. The increased open interest in VIX calls, flagged by Cboe Global Markets, reflects a heightened demand for volatility hedges amid a backdrop of significant market events, including Donald Trump's comments on tariffs and immigration, the FOMC rate decision, and a busy earnings week. This uptic
The recent tech selloff, driven by concerns surrounding DeepSeek, has led to an uptick in stock market volatility, as indicated by the VIX. Despite this, the VIX futures curve remains relatively calm, with contracts from February to June only rising by one to two points. This suggests that while there is immediate market uncertainty, investors maintain confidence in longer-term stability. The divergence bet
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) decreased by 1.13% to close at 14.85, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell by 0.29% to finish the day at 6101.24 on January 24, 2024. This suggests a slight reduction in market volatility, projecting less than 1% in daily S&P 500 movement over the next 30 days. The day's trading volume data was unavailable, but the most significant trade was the VIX Feb 2025 15.000 put, with a
The unwinding of tariff trade positions is contributing to a decrease in market volatility, as traders recalibrate their expectations for less aggressive tariff implementation by the Trump administration. This shift is leading to a weaker U.S. dollar and lower U.S. yields, as the market anticipates reduced inflationary pressures and a less hawkish Federal Reserve stance. The initial uncertainty surrounding
The unwinding of tariff trades is contributing to a decrease in market volatility, as traders adjust their positions in response to the absence of immediate tariff actions from President Trump. This shift is putting downward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, as the market reassesses the likelihood of aggressive trade measures. The initial uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs had elevated
Despite a decline in the VIX, the persistent stickiness of the 'vol of vol' as indicated by the VVIX Index suggests that traders remain concerned about potential tail-risk events. This ongoing demand for volatility hedges reflects a market still wary of sudden spikes in realized volatility. The S&P 500's current resistance around the 6,100 mark, driven by significant option positioning, further underscores
The early days of the new Trump administration have introduced a wave of uncertainty, likened to a "macro black hole," as policy announcements create a chaotic trading environment. The unpredictability surrounding potential tariffs, particularly those speculated to begin on February 1, has left investors grappling with increased market volatility. While equity markets have shown resilience, buoyed by the ab
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) edged up by 0.27% to close at 15.10, while the S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose by 0.61% to finish at 6086.37 on January 22, 2025. This suggests a market expectation of approximately 0.94% daily movements in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days, indicating a relatively stable market environment with moderate volatility. The VIX trading volume data was unavailable, but the most significa
The recent decline in implied volatility, as indicated by the VIX, suggests that the stock market rally may be losing momentum. Following the inauguration of President Trump and the announcement of his executive orders, which were less disruptive than anticipated, equities surged while the VIX fell to around 15. This drop in volatility typically signals reduced uncertainty, fostering a supportive environmen
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently underpricing the potential for a global equity rally driven by tariff relief, according to a recent report from BofA Global Research. As of January 22, 2025, the report highlights that options markets are not fully accounting for the positive impact of easing trade tensions, particularly in light of the new U.S. administration's policies. "Equities hopeful but st