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Morgan Stanley Analyzes Upcoming Global Bond Issuance Amid Varied Market Dynamics

In its latest report, Morgan Stanley highlights the upcoming government bond issuance across major economies, with a focus on the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan. The U.S. is set to issue $119 billion in new 3-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury securities, which will settle next week against $9 billion in coupons and $129.3 billion in redemptions. This issuance is part of a broader trend where the G7 net DV01 is projected to be $35.3 million per basis point, significantly lower than the average of $69.3 million per basis point. In the Eurozone, net issuance is expected to reach €58.9 billion over the next five weeks, with €111.3 billion in supply against €13.2 billion in coupons and €39.2 billion in redemptions. Japan will see a substantial issuance of ¥2,300 billion in 5-year JGBs and ¥1,000 billion in 20-year JGBs, with no cash flow entering the market. Morgan Stanley's strategist Matthew Hornbach notes, "The varied issuance and redemption schedules across these regions reflect differing fiscal strategies and market conditions."