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Citi Highlights US Resilience Amid Emerging Market Bond Strategy Adjustments

Citi's latest report underscores the continued dominance of US economic resilience in shaping emerging market (EM) bond strategies. Despite a deceleration in the USD rally and core rates selloff, investors remain cautious about the potential impact of President Trump's upcoming trade tariff revisions. "Even in an environment of gradual tariff hikes, we still find it difficult to believe flows would somehow become eager to sell USD at any cost," Citi analysts note. The report highlights strategic adjustments, such as overweighting duration in China, India, and Malaysia, while maintaining underweight positions in FX for China and India. In CEEMEA, Citi increases its underweight in Romanian bonds due to fiscal and political uncertainties, while maintaining an overweight stance on Turkish lira amid attractive carry. The report also notes that US financial conditions, although tighter recently, remain looser than in 2023, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 3.60% in August to 4.68% currently.