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Citi Predicts Bearish Outlook for Oil Amid US Policy Shifts and OPEC+ Dynamics

Citi's latest analysis highlights a bearish outlook for crude oil prices, driven by U.S. policy shifts and OPEC+ dynamics. As of January 29, 2025, oil prices have eased from their January 15 peak, with Brent crude falling to approximately $76 per barrel from over $82. This decline follows President Trump's inauguration and his administration's focus on increasing U.S. oil production to lower energy costs and inflation. Citi notes that Trump's call for OPEC+ to boost production ahead of their February 3 meeting could further pressure prices. Additionally, potential 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports may increase energy costs for U.S. refiners. Despite geopolitical uncertainties, Citi maintains a bearish view, projecting Brent to reach $60 by Q4 2025, while acknowledging Iran-related upside risks. The report underscores the impact of U.S. policy on global oil markets, with Trump's strategies likely to influence supply and demand dynamics significantly.