Enphase Energy (ENPH) has been rated "Neutral/High Risk" by Citi, with a revised price target of $70, down from $72. The report highlights a mixed performance, with Q4 2024 revenues of $382.7 million surpassing both Citi and consensus estimates, driven by domestic content demand. However, the outlook for 2025 is less optimistic, with core revenues potentially over 10% below consensus unless safe harbor sales increase or key markets recover. The European market remains challenging, with a 25% q/q revenue decline, particularly in France due to utility rate reductions.
Citi notes that Enphase's R&D efforts are expected to drive revenue and gross margin growth in the second half of 2025, with new product launches such as the next-generation IQ9 microinverters and fourth-generation storage solutions. Despite these developments, Citi expresses caution, stating, "We expect ENPH’s after-market outperformance to dissipate and see -ve read throughs for SEDG."
Enphase's stock was trading at $70.27, up 6.07% on February 5.