Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) reported a strong Q4 2024 performance, with EPS of $1.23 surpassing Citi's and consensus estimates of $1.15 and $1.16, respectively. The company's revenue of $1.39 billion exceeded expectations, driven by robust yield management despite a decline in daily tonnage and shipments. ODFL's strategic focus on maintaining higher-yield, higher-margin shipments continues to pay off, even as the freight cycle remains weak. The company projects Q1 2025 revenue between $1.34-$1.38 billion, reflecting cautious optimism amid persistent macroeconomic headwinds.
Citi maintains a "Neutral" rating on ODFL, adjusting the price target slightly to $205 from $207, based on a 36x P/E multiple on 2025 EPS estimates. The report highlights ODFL's industry-leading service and pricing power, noting, "OD’s industry-leading service and 30% available capacity leave it well-positioned to take advantage of an eventual upcycle relative to peers." However, the elevated valuation suggests limited upside potential, as much of the expected volume inflection may already be priced in.
ODFL's current stock price is $193.35, reflecting a 5.28% increase from the previous close.