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Constellation Brands Q2: Citi Maintains Buy Despite Beer Depletion Miss

Constellation Brands (STZ) reported mixed FQ2 2025 results, with an EPS beat driven by strong beer shipments and margins, but a miss on beer depletions growth, which came in at +2.4% versus expectations of 3-4%. Despite this, Citi maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of $305, citing confidence in a reacceleration of beer sales in the second half of FY25. The company reiterated its FY25 guidance, expecting beer net sales growth of 6-8% and operating profit growth of 11-12%. STZ's beer operating margin improved by 270 bps y/y to 42.6%, supported by cost-saving initiatives and favorable pricing. However, wine and spirits sales declined by 12% y/y, reflecting challenging market conditions. Citi analyst notes, "STZ sounded encouraged by the beer business acceleration in September," with increased marketing investments expected to bolster performance. The current price of STZ is $244.05 as of October 3, 2024.