Citi maintains a "Buy" rating on Mondelez International (MDLZ), with a revised target price of $80, up from $79, based on a 50/50 weighting of P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples. Mondelez is trading at $73.41 as of October 9. The upcoming Q3 2024 earnings report is expected to show organic sales growth (OSG) of 5.0%, surpassing the Visible Alpha consensus of 4.6%, driven by strong performance in Europe and North America. However, Citi cautions that forward commentary may be conservative due to anticipated cocoa inflation impacting Q4 earnings. "We remain constructive on the shares longer term," Citi notes, despite potential short-term pressures.
Citi's 2024 EPS estimate is $3.51, slightly above consensus, but the firm anticipates cocoa inflation could pressure Q4 earnings, with a projected EPS of $0.82, below the consensus of $0.84. For 2025, Citi has adjusted its EPS estimate to $3.56, reflecting the impact of cocoa inflation and potential pricing challenges. "MDLZ offers relative insulation from US food weakness and above-average sales and EPS growth over time," Citi states, highlighting the company's strategic positioning.