12/16

BofA Reports Persistent Long-Term UST Outflows Amid Household Buying Surge

According to a recent BofA Global Research report, long-term U.S. Treasury (UST) funds continue to experience significant outflows, with $4 billion in weekly outflows, totaling $12.5 billion since the post-election period. This trend contrasts with stable or positive inflows in other fixed income categories, particularly in short-term UST, mortgage-backed securities (MBS), and corporate investment-grade funds. The report highlights that households have emerged as dominant buyers in the UST market, likely indicating increased basis trade activity. "Flow of Funds data show households as dominant buyers, likely indication of growing basis trade activity in the market," BofA analysts note. Futures positioning suggests a bias towards a rally, with benchmark investors underweight in duration and favoring curve flatteners. The report also points to a curve flattening bias among Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), reflecting a complex landscape for UST investments.