1/23

BofA Predicts Steeper Treasury Yield Curves Amid Rising 30-Year Issuance

The 30-year Treasury yield has declined by 15 basis points since January 14, 2025, leading to a flattening of the IG 10s30s non-financial spread curve by 4 basis points since mid-December, according to a recent BofA Global Research report. However, BofA analysts anticipate a reversal in February, driven by increased 30-year bond issuance and yield-sensitive demand. "We see risks of steeper curves in February for two reasons. First, rates have declined. Second, 30yr issuance should pick up over the next two months," the report states. The share of 30-year supply is expected to double in February and March, potentially steepening the 10s30s IG curve. This shift comes as investors have begun net buying 1-10 year bonds while selling 30-year bonds, reflecting a strategic repositioning in response to current market conditions.