Oil prices have recently reached a three-month high, driven by shifting supply flows and robust seasonal demand. However, the potential for stricter sanctions on Iran under Donald Trump's second presidency is unlikely to sustain a significant rise in crude prices. This is largely because OPEC+ is well-positioned to offset any potential 1 million barrel-a-day drop in production, ensuring market stability.
According to Salih Yilmaz, a Global Energy Analyst, the more pressing concerns for oil prices in 2025 are higher tariffs and a stronger dollar. A stronger dollar typically leads to lower oil prices as it makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, thereby reducing demand. Additionally, increased tariffs could dampen global economic activity, further decreasing demand for oil as industrial and transportation activities slow down.
As of 06:11 on January 10, the price of oil stands at $78.83, up from its last close of $76.92. Despite the geopolitical risks and economic factors at play, OPEC+'s ability to adjust production levels continues to play a crucial role in stabilizing the market.