The oil market narrative for 2025 is shifting as new US sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector introduce significant supply concerns. These measures, the most aggressive to date, impact Russian producers, insurers, and a substantial portion of the shadow tanker fleet, potentially disrupting up to 800,000 barrels per day. This development has prompted analysts to reassess their forecasts, with Goldman Sachs suggesting that Brent crude could exceed $90 per barrel if both Russian and Iranian outputs are affected. The sanctions have intensified market tightness, as evidenced by the widening backwardation in futures markets and falling US crude inventories, which are at their lowest since 2014.
The potential for further geopolitical tensions and stricter enforcement of sanctions could exacerbate supply constraints, offering oil bulls a chance to reclaim the narrative for 2025. Reports from the IEA and OPEC, expected this week, may further influence market dynamics if they highlight the impact of these sanctions.
As of 04:10 on January 13, the price of crude oil (CL1) stands at $78.47, up from its last close of $76.57, reflecting the market's response to the evolving supply landscape.