The oil market is entering a phase of heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions, according to a recent report by Citi. The report highlights the impact of new U.S. sanctions on Russia and potential tariffs on Canadian crude oil imports, which could disrupt global oil balances. Citi estimates that up to 800,000 barrels per day (b/d) of Russian oil exports are at risk, although the Russian energy system may absorb much of this impact, reducing the threat to around 300,000 b/d. Additionally, a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian crude could widen the Western Canadian Select (WCS) discount to West Texas Intermediate (WTI) by as much as $15 per barrel. "A 25% tariff on 4-m b/d of Canadian crude oil exports to the US could leave flows unaffected, but could cause the WCS discount to WTI to widen by as much as $15/bbl," Citi analysts note. The report also warns that these geopolitical disruptions could lead to a rise in crude oil prices by over $10 per barrel, exacerbating global economic uncertainties.