1/17

BofA Sees Tightening Financial Conditions Impacting Oil and Credit Markets

According to a recent report by BofA Global Research, financial conditions have tightened significantly across rates, the dollar, oil, and credit, raising concerns about potential impacts on economic activity. The report highlights that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropped by 15 basis points following a softer inflation print, contributing to a 12 basis point tightening in the ICE High Yield Index. This tightening trend, BofA notes, could challenge the Federal Reserve's objective to loosen its policy stance. "If you think about FCIs as a combination of four key factors - rates, the dollar, oil, and credit - all have recently tightened," BofA analysts explain. The report also points out that high yield bonds are increasingly being called closer to maturity, with call premiums averaging just 1.6 points over the last 12 months, compared to the historical norm of 3-5 points. This shift is expected to change as maturities approach, potentially altering the landscape for credit investors.