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Citi Sees Strong USD Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Global Economic Risks

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is expected to remain robust as tariff uncertainties loom with the upcoming U.S. presidential inauguration, according to Citi's latest Global Asset Allocation report. Citi analysts maintain a long USD position, citing that even a gradual rise in tariffs could bolster the dollar. "We remain long USD, as even a gradual rise in tariffs should be USD bullish," the report states. The global growth forecast for 2025 is pegged at 2.6%, mirroring 2024, with the U.S. economy outperforming expectations. However, the report warns of potential inflationary pressures that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts until May. Citi's strategy includes an overweight in U.S. equities, particularly small caps, and a preference for precious metals due to continued central bank buying. The report also highlights a cautious stance on European and Japanese equities, given tariff risks and a hawkish Bank of Japan.