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BofA Predicts Steeper Yield Curves as 30-Year Treasury Issuance Rises

The flattening of the investment-grade (IG) 10s30s non-financial spread curve, which has decreased by 4 basis points since mid-December, is expected to reverse in February, according to a recent report by BofA Global Research. The report highlights two key factors that could lead to steeper curves: a decline in interest rates and an anticipated increase in 30-year Treasury issuance. Since January 14, the 30-year Treasury yield has fallen by 15 basis points, prompting investors to shift their focus from 30-year bonds to 1-10 year bonds. Additionally, the supply of 30-year bonds has been below average for January, accounting for only 8% of total issuance, compared to a five-year average of 13%. BofA analysts project that as issuance shifts towards non-financial sectors in February and March, the share of 30-year supply could double, potentially steepening the IG 10s30s curve.