The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x ETF (TMF) is experiencing upward momentum, driven by recent developments in the U.S. Treasury market. On February 5, 2025, the U.S. Treasury's re-funding announcement, led by the new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is a focal point for investors. While no surprises are expected, the market remains cautious, with any unexpected moves potentially impacting Treasury
The upcoming US Treasury quarterly refunding, led by Scott Bessent, is poised to capture the attention of bond traders, particularly regarding potential changes in forward guidance. While issuance sizes for the first quarter are expected to remain stable, any adjustments or omissions in forward guidance could significantly impact market sentiment. The Treasury has consistently stated that it does not antici
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x ETF (TMF) is experiencing downward pressure due to a combination of factors affecting the U.S. Treasury market. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note stabilized around 4.56% on February 4, 2025, after a brief recovery from multi-week lows. This stabilization followed the postponement of planned U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which reduced the safe-haven de
The market's reaction to recent tariff announcements has been marked by a bear flattener in the yield curve, indicating rising short-term rates relative to long-term rates. This movement suggests that investors view tariffs as inflationary in the short term, while also posing risks to long-term economic growth. As a result, there has been a notable increase in net longs in longer-dated Treasuries, reflectin
The bond market is experiencing a bear steepening trend as investors refocus on supply and positioning, with longer-term yields rising faster than shorter-term ones. This shift is driven by a resurgence in corporate bond issuance, as delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with a symbolic countermove from China, have reduced market volatility. The improved conditions have led to a dozen new deals in the
The imposition of new tariffs by President Trump has introduced significant uncertainty into the financial markets, with potential repercussions for both equities and bonds. The tariffs, targeting imports from Mexico and Canada, are expected to increase inflation risk, leading to higher short-term interest rates. This scenario poses challenges for steepeners, which typically benefit from a widening spread b
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x ETF (TMF) is experiencing upward movement as investors flock to U.S. Treasuries amid heightened market volatility. The imposition of U.S. tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China has triggered a wave of safe-haven buying, pushing yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note down toward 4.5%, the lowest level in seven weeks. This flight to safety is driven by co
According to a recent report by BofA Global Research, U.S. fixed income funds have experienced robust inflows, particularly into long-term sovereign funds, reflecting a flattening bias in the yield curve. The report, dated February 3, 2025, notes that while short-term U.S. Treasury (UST) fund inflows have cooled, intermediate- and long-term UST fund inflows have picked up. This shift is underscored by a $13
The upcoming week is set to be pivotal for the bond market, with key economic indicators and policy decisions potentially influencing long-term yield expectations. The imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, alongside the release of the ISM Manufacturing survey and the US jobs report, are expected to provide insights into the strength of the US economy. Analysts, including Apollo Global's Torsten Slok,
The upcoming week is set to be pivotal for the bond market, with key economic indicators such as tariffs, ISM surveys, and the US jobs report poised to influence long-term interest rates. Analysts anticipate that these data points will reflect a robust economy, potentially delaying the first expected Federal Reserve rate cut to September due to rising inflation concerns. The imposition of tariffs on consume
The latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, showing a rise in the Fed's preferred inflation measure to 2.6% from 2.4%, has reinforced concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. This follows earlier reports of rising Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, with the latter indicating potential future consumer price hikes. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x ETF (TMF) closed up 1.19% at $40.85 on January 30, as U.S. Treasury yields dipped amid mixed economic signals. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell 3.2 basis points to 4.522%, reflecting increased demand for safer assets as investors reacted to economic data indicating a slowdown in U.S. growth and stagnation in key European economies. The European Central Bank's
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x ETF (TMF) is experiencing upward movement as U.S. Treasury yields decline ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Investors are closely monitoring the Fed's first policy announcement of 2025, with expectations that the central bank will maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25% to 4.5%. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by 2 basis points t
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x ETF (TMF) closed up 3.74% at $40.81 on January 27, as U.S. Treasury yields fell amid shifting investor sentiment and policy expectations. The underlying 20-year Treasury bond saw a 1.23% increase to $43.77, driven by a combination of factors including a buyers' strike ending and a more dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve. Morgan Stanley's recent research suggest
The credit market is experiencing a broad-based spread widening, reflecting a slight adjustment in risk appetite rather than a significant repricing. This movement is particularly evident in both junk and investment-grade bonds, where spreads have been low, indicating high valuations and limited risk compensation for investors. The widening partly stems from a rally in the underlying benchmark, suggesting t
A significant sell-off in U.S. stocks on January 27, 2025, has led to a notable decline in U.S. Treasury yields, pushing bond prices to their highest levels this year. The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.504%, nearing the critical 4.5% support level, while the 2-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.17%. This movement has narrowed the 10y-2y spread to 0.335%, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment toward
Citi's latest analysis suggests a bullish outlook for U.S. Treasuries as the Treasury Department is expected to maintain nominal coupon sizes at the upcoming February refunding meeting. The report, dated January 24, 2025, highlights that the Treasury's reliance on T-bills is likely to continue, with no immediate need to increase coupon auction sizes. "We expect continued guidance for nominal coupon sizes to
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x ETF (TMF) is experiencing price movement influenced by the broader bond market dynamics. As of January 24, 2025, the U.S. Treasury market is reacting to a mix of economic data and Federal Reserve signals. Recent economic indicators have shown resilience, with unemployment rates remaining low and consumer spending holding steady. This has led to speculation that the
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x ETF (TMF) is experiencing downward pressure due to several factors impacting the U.S. Treasury market. On January 23, 2025, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $13 billion in 20-year bonds, which saw strong demand, particularly from indirect participants. The auction's cut-off yield was 4.90%, slightly below the when-issued yield, indicating robust interest. Despite this, t
The flattening of the investment-grade (IG) 10s30s non-financial spread curve, which has decreased by 4 basis points since mid-December, is expected to reverse in February, according to a recent report by BofA Global Research. The report highlights two key factors that could lead to steeper curves: a decline in interest rates and an anticipated increase in 30-year Treasury issuance. Since January 14, the 30