11/14

IEI: Powell's Inflation Warning Reshapes Treasury Curve

The iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEI), which tracks the performance of US Treasury bonds with maturities between three and seven years, saw a slight decline in its price, currently trading at $115.72 as of 15:21 on November 14. This represents a modest drop from its last close of $115.88, following an intraday high of $116.09. The ETF's movement comes amid a broader market reaction to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on rising core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which have heightened inflation expectations and led to a bear flattening in the Treasury yield curve. Shorter-term yields, such as those on 2-year and 5-year Treasuries, have risen as investors demand higher returns to compensate for anticipated inflation risks. Despite this, market expectations for future rate hikes have slightly decreased, with Fed swaps now reflecting about 12 basis points in hikes, down from 20 basis points in the previous session. This dynamic has contributed to the IEI's price action, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to shifting interest rate expectations.