12/9

Citi Highlights Inflation Concerns in Brazil Amidst EM Strategy Outlook

Citi's latest report on Latin American economies underscores significant inflationary pressures in Brazil, with the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) facing mounting challenges. The BCB's Focus survey reveals a notable rise in inflation expectations, with year-end forecasts for 2024 climbing to 4.84% from 4.71% last week, and 2025 projections increasing to 4.59% from 4.40%. These figures exceed the upper target bound of 4.5%, intensifying pressure on the BCB's monetary policy decisions. Citi anticipates a potential 75 basis point hike in the Selic rate on December 11, 2024, with a 100 basis point increase also on the table. Meanwhile, the report highlights a broader emerging market strategy, noting the potential for the Brazilian real to stabilize against the euro and U.S. dollar as 2025 approaches, despite risks of a dovish BCB tilt.