1/16

Citi Sees Rising Long-Term Rates Amid Resilient Global Growth and Trump 2.0

Citi's latest report highlights a resilient global growth forecast of 2.6% for 2025, despite rising long-term interest rates and the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with a robust employment report underscoring its momentum. However, global long-term rates have surged, with U.S. ten-year yields climbing nearly 100 basis points since the Fed's mid-September meeting. This rise in yields, despite central banks cutting policy rates, could restrain global growth. Citi analysts note, "The divergence between the short-end and the long-end of global rates curves is a striking feature of the current economic and financial environment." The report also anticipates a complex mix of economic pressures from Trump's policies, including increased tariffs and potential fiscal stimulus, which could impact inflation expectations and growth dynamics.