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Morgan Stanley Analyzes U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Amid Tariff Volatility

The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) experienced a slight decline to 4.555%, down 1.6 basis points, as global markets reacted to recent tariff announcements by President Trump, according to Morgan Stanley's latest Global Macro Commentary. The yield curve flattened, with front-end yields rising due to inflationary concerns and expectations of slower Federal Reserve easing, while growth concerns supported the long end. "Price action is volatile across global macro markets after President Trump announces tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China," Morgan Stanley analysts noted. The report highlights that the U.S. Treasury's financing needs have been revised, with a budget surplus expected for the April-June 2025 quarter, indicating a better fiscal position compared to previous debt limit scenarios. As the market digests these developments, the 10-Year Treasury remains a focal point for investors assessing the impact of geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts.