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BofA Sees 10-Year Treasury Yields Range-Bound Amid Economic Uncertainty

The 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) is expected to remain within a 4.2% to 4.8% range, according to a recent report by BofA Global Research. Analysts suggest a "soft long duration bias" as the market navigates economic uncertainties and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy. "We expect US rates to be relatively range bound; since the election US 10Y has traded between 4.2-4.8% & we expect this range to hold until US data meaningfully shifts," BofA analysts note. The report emphasizes focusing on asset swaps rather than term premiums, with the February Treasury refunding expected to maintain stable coupon auction sizes. BofA also highlights the potential for slow steepening of the 5s30s curve and slightly elevated volatility in short tenors.