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BofA Sees 10-Year Treasury Yield Steady Amid Dovish Fed Outlook

The 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) remains stable as the Federal Reserve maintains its dovish stance following the January FOMC meeting, according to a report by BofA Global Research. The yield has decreased from 4.8% on January 14 to 4.5%, reflecting the market's response to the Fed's unchanged dovish trajectory. "Today's FOMC did not change the dovish trend for the Fed outlook much, with markets subtracting just 3bps from cuts priced over the next 12 months," BofA analysts note. Despite the dovish tone, the Fed's data dependency remains a critical factor, with no further rate cuts expected this year. The report highlights that investment-grade (IG) spreads tightened by 3 to 4 basis points as a result of the lower yields, indicating strong demand for IG assets. However, BofA warns of potential risks leading to moderately wider spreads in the future, emphasizing the importance of monitoring economic data surprises and potential tariff impacts on inflation.