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BofA Analyzes U.S. Treasury Yield Surge Amid Economic Resilience and Policy Uncertainty

The 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) has experienced a significant bear steepening, rising over 40 basis points since the U.S. elections, as highlighted in a recent BofA Global Research report. Despite heightened policy uncertainty, the U.S. economy remains robust, with strong payroll and retail sales data. Core inflation, however, persists at 3.2% y/y, above the Federal Reserve's target, suggesting the end of the rate-cutting cycle. BofA analysts note, "The strength of the U.S. economy builds on cyclical and structural factors," with consumption driven by solid real income growth and fiscal policy. The report suggests that concerns over fiscal profligacy and potential deficit financing through long-term coupon notes have contributed to the yield increase, challenging the conventional wisdom that uncertainty typically drives rates lower.