1/17

BofA Raises 10-Year Treasury Yield Forecast to 4.75% Amid Fed's No-Cut Stance

Bank of America (BofA) has revised its U.S. 10-year Treasury yield forecast to 4.75%, reflecting a shift in expectations as the Federal Reserve halts further rate cuts. This adjustment comes amid a broader global rate sell-off and a reassessment of the Fed's monetary policy trajectory. "With no additional cuts coming, the US 10y is unlikely to reach the 4.25% target reflected in our previous forecasts," BofA analysts note. The revised forecast aligns with a flat Overnight Index Swap (OIS) curve and current swap spreads, suggesting a stable outlook for U.S. Treasury yields. BofA's economists anticipate robust economic growth of 2-2.6% y/y, alongside a strong labor market, which supports the higher yield projection. The report also highlights the potential for further rate hikes, with risks balanced between rising rates due to supply-demand imbalances and potential declines if economic growth slows.