Citi Research highlights a balanced risk profile for 10-year Treasury yields, which are expected to remain between 4.5% and 5% in the coming month, according to a recent survey. Despite strong retail sales, softening inflation data has led to a repricing of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, resulting in a rally in Treasury yields. "Our poll from last week suggests a majority of our readers (~60%) expect 10-yr Treasury yields to stay between 4.5-5%," Citi analysts note. The production coupon option-adjusted spread (OAS) currently sits at 35 basis points, on the wider end of Citi's fair value target of 25 to 35 basis points. While spreads appear fair to slightly cheap, headwinds such as increased TBA origination supply and elevated risks around GSE privatization persist. Consequently, Citi maintains a neutral stance on the basis, emphasizing the balanced risk-reward scenario in the current market environment.